Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market to Reach US$16.3 Billion by 2030

The global market for Sustainable Aviation Fuel estimated at US$1.6 Billion in the year 2024, is expected to reach US$16.3 Billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 47.5% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Biofuel, one of the segments analyzed in the report, is expected to record a 51.5% CAGR and reach US$6.6 Billion by the end of the analysis period. Growth in the Hydrogen Fuel Cell segment is estimated at 49.3% CAGR over the analysis period.

The U.S. Market is Estimated at US$429.5 Million While China is Forecast to Grow at 58.1% CAGR

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel market in the U.S. is estimated at US$429.5 Million in the year 2024. China, the world`s second largest economy, is forecast to reach a projected market size of US$4.1 Billion by the year 2030 trailing a CAGR of 58.1% over the analysis period 2024-2030. Among the other noteworthy geographic markets are Japan and Canada, each forecast to grow at a CAGR of 39.6% and 44.8% respectively over the analysis period. Within Europe, Germany is forecast to grow at approximately 42.1% CAGR.

Global Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market – Key Trends & Drivers Summarized

Why Is Sustainable Aviation Fuel Gaining Altitude in the Aviation Industry?

The aviation industry, long viewed as a hard-to-abate sector due to its reliance on high energy-density fossil fuels, is now rapidly transitioning toward decarbonization—and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) lies at the heart of this transformation. With global passenger air travel recovering post-pandemic and international cargo volumes rising, emissions from aviation are projected to surge unless aggressively mitigated. SAF offers a viable and immediate pathway to reducing lifecycle carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel. Unlike other decarbonization technologies like hydrogen or electric propulsion, SAF is a “drop-in” fuel, compatible with existing aircraft engines and fueling infrastructure, enabling near-term impact with minimal operational disruption. Leading airlines, in response to net-zero pledges and mounting investor pressure, are incorporating SAF into their fuel mix and forming long-term offtake agreements to secure supply. Several major airports and fuel suppliers have begun integrating SAF blending and distribution facilities, especially in North America and Europe, establishing early-stage ecosystems for sustainable fueling. Moreover, SAF adoption is no longer confined to commercial aviation; business jets and cargo carriers are joining the shift, further expanding the addressable market. With growing awareness among climate-conscious travelers and corporate clients, SAF is increasingly seen not just as a compliance strategy but as a competitive differentiator in airline sustainability branding.

How Are Policies, Carbon Markets, and Mandates Reshaping the SAF Market Landscape?

Government regulations and international frameworks are playing a pivotal role in steering the SAF market from niche to mainstream. In Europe, the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative mandates minimum SAF blending quotas beginning in 2025, with targets set to increase steadily through 2050. The U.S., through the Inflation Reduction Act and the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge, offers substantial tax credits and R&D incentives to scale domestic SAF production. Meanwhile, ICAO’s CORSIA framework, aimed at offsetting international aviation emissions, is pushing airlines to invest in cleaner fuels to meet voluntary and soon-to-be-mandatory carbon reduction targets. Carbon pricing mechanisms, both current and emerging, are increasing the cost of emitting, further enhancing the economic case for SAF as a low-carbon alternative. Voluntary carbon markets are also becoming more sophisticated, allowing airlines and corporations to purchase SAF certificates or participate in book-and-claim systems that decouple SAF use from geography. These mechanisms allow entities to claim emissions reductions, even if SAF isn’t available at their local airport. National fuel blending mandates, renewable energy targets, and clean fuel standards in countries like Norway, Japan, and Canada are further globalizing the SAF movement. As policy clarity improves, investor confidence in the scalability of SAF ventures is also increasing, unlocking capital flows into refinery development and advanced conversion technologies.

Is Feedstock Innovation and Technological Diversification Unlocking the Next Wave of SAF Growth?

A critical enabler of SAF market scalability is the expansion and diversification of feedstocks and conversion pathways. Today’s SAF can be produced through multiple technological routes—HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), FT-SPK (Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene), ATJ (Alcohol-to-Jet), and emerging technologies such as Power-to-Liquid (PtL) and Gasification of Municipal Solid Waste. HEFA, currently the most commercially viable pathway, relies heavily on used cooking oil and animal fats, but its scalability is constrained by limited feedstock availability. This bottleneck has spurred research and commercial investment into non-traditional and second-generation sources such as algae, lignocellulosic biomass, forestry residues, and even CO2-derived synthetic fuels. These innovations are supported by advancements in catalysis, microbial engineering, and process intensification, which are lowering costs and improving fuel yields. Simultaneously, modular biorefineries and co-processing strategies are being piloted to decentralize SAF production and make use of regional waste streams. Engine manufacturers are also validating 100% SAF compatibility, laying the foundation for eventual full replacement of fossil jet fuel. Technology-specific pathways offer varying benefits in terms of GHG reduction potential, cost structure, and regional feasibility—creating a dynamic and competitive innovation landscape. As pathways diversify and new players enter, the SAF market is moving beyond a one-size-fits-all approach, accelerating both geographic reach and volume output.

What’s Powering the Market Momentum Behind Sustainable Aviation Fuel?

The growth in the sustainable aviation fuel market is driven by several factors spanning technology readiness, evolving end-use demand, shifting consumer behavior, and global sustainability alignment. On the technology front, significant strides in feedstock-to-fuel conversion efficiency, catalyst design, and modular SAF plant deployment are reducing production costs and enhancing scalability. The aviation sector itself is undergoing structural transformation, with airlines, OEMs, and fuel suppliers integrating SAF targets into strategic planning and product design. Major air carriers are incorporating SAF procurement into their long-term carbon strategies, often bundled with carbon offsetting and digital emissions tracking tools. Business travel buyers and corporate clients are pressuring airlines to offer SAF-backed flight options to meet internal ESG benchmarks. In the logistics space, global cargo carriers and e-commerce giants are embedding SAF into their sustainable logistics frameworks. At the consumer level, increasing awareness around “flight shame” and carbon footprints is influencing purchasing decisions—particularly among millennials and Gen Z—creating downstream pressure for airlines to act. Furthermore, access to sustainability-linked loans, green bonds, and public-private funding partnerships is enabling capital-intensive SAF projects to reach financial close. The convergence of these factors—technological validation, multi-sectoral demand, informed consumers, and supportive finance—is collectively fueling an upward trajectory for the SAF market that is expected to continue intensifying over the next two decades.